5 months Ago
Checking the Numbers and Other Estimates
At least 111,387 Russian soldiers have according to independent counts been confirmed dead during the course of the war — a minimum figure. Ukrainian assertion of a million losses is a bold one, said the defense expert David Ellison of the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, who noted that it likely includes minor injuries.
He said such figures are virtually impossible to confirm and might be exaggerated as part of a strategy of war.
Media analysts and volunteers have created databases by scouring obituaries, social media posts and other records, and say the actual number of Russian deaths could be as high as 170,000 to 246,000. And “even conservatively,” according to Ellison, Russian deaths have already exceeded the size of the British professional army. The toll in these databases has approximately doubled over the last year, a sign of increased Russian offensives, almost certainly resulting in more deaths.
Ukraine’s battle of attrition and its losses
Ukraine, too, has paid a terrible price: some estimates put the number of soldiers killed at 60,000 to 100,000, with as many as 400,000 wounded or disabled. However, analysts caution that these numbers could be underreported in an effort to preserve domestic morale and international assistance.
Russia has the greater man power over the long term. With Russia’s system of compulsory military service starting at age 18, many Russian men are already trained and can be deployed rapidly. Ukraine, on the other hand, starts conscription at 25 and has a smaller population.
Russia has paid a heavy price in casualties to secure what appears to be less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory since January 2024, but its capacity to generate new formations is robust. Some experts argue that Russia’s position may not actually be so strong, but the final outcome of the war does remain uncertain. For now at least, both countries are still boasting about what wins they have scored and minimizing the punishments they’ve taken.
