3 months Ago
CDA foundation- party rises, VVD declines
Based on Peilingwijzer (averages weighted by Ipsos I&O and Verian/EenVandaag), the VVD has dropped to between 14 and 18 seats, with about an 8-seat deficit from their present representation in the Chamber of Representatives.
The VVD has also dropped relative to support over the past 6-7 weeks (in late-July, they were polling at 20 to 24 seats). Attributed to her statements about singer Douwe Bob last summer, the fallout from which produced a probably false apology, but also confidence of returning voters.
In contrast, the CDA has the wind at its back. Under new leadership, Bontenbal is polling at 22 to 26 seats-- hovering near Groenlinks-PvdA, which is polling at 23 to 27 seats. Bontenbal stated before in his aspirations to be Prime Minister, if CDA is the largest party, survey results shows the attractiveness of his position with lower party levels as well.
PVV (the Party for Freedom) still have polling figure markedly higher than CDA, and support has leveled off to between 29 to 35 seats however, support is still remaining about 5 seats worse than current.
Upcoming political decisions and shifts
The BBB (the farmers' party) is now polling at between 4 to 6 seats and are doing better than their earlier results, but are still close to their current Chamber representation. All 4 parties in Schoof I Cabinet have both reduced support with the NSC-- previously a 20 seat support of August, appears to have fallen to nearly into 0 to 1 seat, if any.
For other mid-sized parties, D66 is at 10 to 12-- still holding some visibility. JA21 has gained support and are now somewhere reaching 7 to 11 seats for support-- approaching double digits. The SP is following JA21, but with 5 to 7 seats. Then, the BBB and animal party PvdD are both between 4 to 6. DENK is currently at 3 to 5. Meanwhile, CU is around 3 to 5. Lastly, FvD, Volt, and SGP are still continuing to loop at 2 to 4.
Given the polling position, PVV is presently the largest party; Geert Wilders (PVV) will still face challenges even with a coalition. There is currently a denning cooperation capacity with the VVD and CDA. A cooperation with left-wing green (GL-PVDA anyhow), is simply not possible and not credible, as stated by Peilingwijzer, as clearly Dilan has not been positive and open. Not surprisingly, as Rob Jette from D66 has gone public to Wilders to oppose.
Voter uncertainty remains elevated across all reports. Political Scientist Tom Louwerse, developer of Peilingwijzer, stated, "I agree the situation is fluid, Verian/EenVandaag indicate over 30% of voters are undecided, with some even being progressively stable.
Even if a party is seen as preferable, changes will happen in the campaign". Furthermore, he noted, "Polls are just a snapshot," while highlighting that there still are parties in which there is potential for growth and room continues to be available in the length of time remaining on election day.
