Dutch Job Growth to Slow Through 2027, But Labor Shortages Will Remain

Minimal Growth, High Demand for Workers
Despite projections by the UWV that the Dutch economy will expand at an average of 1.6% per year until 2027, little to no additional jobs will be created. Rob Witjes, head of labor market information at the UWV, said a greying population is growth-constraining. As a result, labor demand remains strong, initially fueled by the need to replace retiring or departing workers.

There will be some sectoral growth even if growth across the whole economy is flat. Information and communication, professional business services and health and social care are among these. Agriculture, industry and temporary work are meanwhile projected to decrease. Temporary work is particularly hard hit because of more rigorous regulation of fake self-employment, which has forced many freelancers into standard contracts.

Risk of U.S. Tariffs
There is another wild card in the form of possible U.S. import duties, which would also hurt export-dependent sectors like metals and chemicals. UWV does not expect job reduction, but a more modest increase in jobs if these tariffs come into effect.

Multiplying the number of expected job openings stems from replacement demand and keeps the number of vacancies high, despite feeblish employment prospects: some 1.5 million vacancies are expected annually. The most pressure will be felt in the healthcare, retail and hospitality sectors.

"We are already beyond the peak," Witjes said, "but employers will still feel the impact of staff shortages in the coming years." He stressed the requirement for new solutions and regional cooperation, such as the regional Employment Center, to tackle persistent labor market mismatches.